A Daily Commute Dilemma: A Thought Experiment on Train Efficiency
I ride the Marmaray on my daily commute. It’s an intercontinental train! It carries me from my home on the Asian side of Istanbul to the European side, where my school is. The line is quite long, and demand is very high between popular stations. To handle this, there are two different types of trains: one that goes from end to end and another that stops only at the middle stations. Luckily, I use the middle part.
Here’s the dilemma I always face: When the long-running train arrives, I have two options. I can either board it and deal with a more crowded train, or I can wait for a short-running train, hoping it arrives sooner than the next long-running train. The idea is that fewer people use the short-running trains, so the ride is usually more comfortable.
But why am I even making this choice? I like consistency. I feel comfort in knowing that all trains would offer the same level of comfort. I understand that short-running trains are necessary, but I started thinking: what if the short-running trains always arrived just before the long-running ones? Wouldn’t that help balance the load between the two types of trains?
As someone who likes to think of themselves as a bit of a data whiz, I decided to try a small experiment. I wrote an abstract R script to simulate a hypothetical train line and test if making the timing asymmetrical would help equalize comfort levels between trains. This small simulation doesn't rely on actual data but my personal observation also goal is not to actually simulate Marmaray itself but something similar to that. Let’s look at the results:
From the results, we can see that the proposed change led to better outcomes. However, as I adjusted the parameters, I was surprised to find that this approach wasn’t always a clear winner. In realistic scenarios, it often worked well, but not always.
Final Thoughts
In summary, I’ll continue riding the Marmaray without worrying too much about whether this solution would improve things. The results showed that it really depends on the situation, and besides, such solutions need reliable systems and predictable crowds—neither of which we have here. The Marmaray is a very long and crowded line with uneven demand, making it a tricky problem to solve.
To the people working on public transportation planning: good luck! It seems like a fun but unpredictable challenge!